From NBC News, “Russia said it was pulling back more forces from around Ukraine Wednesday, the latest move in an apparent effort to ease tensions that has done little to assuage Western fears Moscow might be planning an imminent invasion of its neighbor. Russia says that it is pulling back some of the 150,000 troops that the United States and its allies warn have converged around Ukraine on three sides. But with the world searching for signs that a deadly new conflict on European soil might be averted, days of high-stakes signaling from Moscow has been with skepticism by the West.”
In the great words of James Tiberius Kirk, “They’re animals. Don’t believe them. Don’t trust them” (Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country, 1991). Putin is a liar! And there is a huge difference between “pulling back” and de-escalation. These forces could merely be rotating out of front-line positions to behind-the-line positions for rest, relaxation, and most importantly re-tooling. Lord knows Putin has built up enough forces to be able to do so. Troops can only be at a heightened state of military readiness for so long before they, too, get complacent. Crying wolf works both ways. Soldiers don’t like to be in an endless state of readiness — either they intend to fight or don’t. They are not supposed to be in maybe mode for months on end, which is why I think Putin is bound to make a decision soon. (I think he is going to pull the trigger.) I think he is going to call the West’s bluff. Look, morons. The West is not willing to engage in a large-scale war, and they fear a war that gets out of control. The worst that will befall Russia as they roll into Ukraine are more sanctions, and as with sanctions against other rogue nations like North Korea, Syria, and Iran, they will get around them and they will endure, especially with help from China. NATO will do much handwringing and announce much condemnation. So, Ukraine will be on its own when the time comes, sadly!
I am not sure what exactly Putin is waiting for since he clearly has no real interest in diplomacy. (Putin can initiate a false flag at any time.) In the meantime, “negotiations” are all blah, blah, blah, and Western diplomats seem to think that another day of talking and not shooting is a diplomatic victory. Eh, I’m not convinced by that logic. All it does is give Putin a chance to obfuscate his intentions and his desires. The West does not do well in a state of confusion whereas Putin and Russians seem to thrive in such conditions. Deception is the rule. Ala Chamberlian, the West is busy congratulating themselves for avoiding another day of fighting while Putin adjusts his chess pieces on the board. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Bullies need to be put in their place, and sometimes the best thing to do is to bloody their nose.