Category: International Indigestion

Here is the critical point about the nuclear option that The New York Times writes, “When Vladimir V. Putin declared Sunday that he was putting his nuclear forces into ‘special combat readiness’ — a heightened alert status reminiscent of some of the most dangerous moments of the Cold War — President Biden and his aides had a choice. … But to many in the administration, who spoke on Sunday on the condition of anonymity, it was a stark reminder of how quickly the Ukraine crisis could spin into a direct superpower confrontation — and how it may yet do so, as Mr. Putin tests how far he can go and threatens to use the ultimate weapon to get there [emphasis added].”

Putin increasing the nuclear force readiness is probably all bravado and meant to rattle the Allies; however, it is worrying that he keeps referencing his nuclear capabilities. I fear that such escalating actions and speech could spiral out of control faster than reason can counteract. I am not one of those who ascribe to Putin being non compos mentis. I do think he is readjusting to more significant pushback from Allied and non-Allied nations, especially relating to sanctions that could very well cripple the Russian economy sooner rather than later. I do think he has dictator syndrome.

What gives me more substantial consternation is the constitutional referendum in Belarus and Belarus joining the war. According to FP, “A constitutional referendum in Belarus this weekend is set to allow Russia to house nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil, fueling concerns across Europe that Minsk is moving further into Moscow’s shadow as war continues in neighboring Ukraine. … Most importantly, it will have the power to remove the president. Given the assembly’s political allegiance, and new rules allowing Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko to be both president and chair of the assembly, the strongman will now be able to control all the mechanisms of power for years [read: president for life].” This is one step closer to Putin rebuilding the U.S.S.R. Indeed, Belarus is literally voting on — and about to pass — the nuclear option.

Moreover, the Kyiv Independent reports, “As Russia fails to inflict quick defeat upon Ukraine after four days of fierce hostilities, Vladimir Putin is about to pull his Belarusian ally, dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko into his war of occupation.” And from the Daily Mail, “The Ukrainian state security service has officially reported that a rocket attack on Zhytomyr Airport – located some 93 miles west of Kiev (sic) – was launched from the territory of Belarus. Belarusian special forces were seen loading onto airplanes in preparation for an air assault on Kyiv in what could be a widening of the war, military sources stated. Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly learned from within Belarus that ‘special ops’ troops have been spotted loading up planes for a major attack. A widening of the conflict to potentially include Russian ally Belarus could signal Vladimir Putin’s growing fury and frustration as the Russian campaign.” This is exactly how world wars start. Entangling alliances draw one state after another into the conflict until, at some point, two distinct rival coalitions form that are fighting beyond the Ukrainian theater of war. If Belarus joins the war, then I hope the West inflicts all the same sanctions on them as they inflicted on Russia.

Directly from the mouth of Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Nations, “If [Putin] wants to kill himself, he doesn’t need to use nuclear arsenal. He has to do what the guy in Berlin did in a bunker in May 1945.” Of course, the suggestion is for Putin to pull a Hitler, who actually killed himself in April 1945, but the point is well taken. The world is waiting, Putty Boy!

There is one more Russia corollary with Nazi Germany that is worth a bit of opining. Like Hitler, Putin has reached peak dictator syndrome — making poor decisions unilaterally and his generals supinely oblige. Many German generals expressed varying degrees of a desire to depose Hitler throughout his reign, but there was never a majority or consensus to get rid of a leader who was destroying their armies and the country before their eyes. Astonishingly, they persisted and ultimately helped Hitler usher the ruin of a nation. I wonder what is going on with Putin’s generals. At what point do they commit to destroying Russia and, dare I say, the planet? It is almost incomprehensible that humanity revisits itself — so to speak — despite lessons from history. Namely, we have allowed once again a single person to hold hostage the rest of civilization, and there are, no doubt, enough people close to Putin who could change the course of history but will fail to do so.

A Politico headline sums up my feelings exactly, “The West finally throws a punch in its face-off with Russia.” The article goes on to say, “A rash of weekend moves on sanctions, airspace, military aid and more showed that the United States and its allies aren’t afraid to escalate when it comes to helping Ukraine. The gloves are off, at least for now. After months of making careful, measured moves that failed to persuade Russia to halt plans to invade Ukraine, the United States and its European allies have tossed aside caution in favor of a more ruthless strategy [emphasis added].”

I will be the first to admit that I underestimated the resolve of NATO (and the West). I was wrong, and I’m not afraid to admit it. Unfortunately, NATO has decades of evincing weakness and discord in the face of aggression from international bad actors, so I believed this moment would be no different. I suppose that I underestimated the menace of Russia on NATO and the EU doorstep. Funny how the threat of a mid-day hanging focuses the mind for these institutions because, at this point, no one seems to believe Putin would not stop at Ukraine, especially Sweden and Finland. More than any other non-NATO nation, Finland has a long history of being invaded by Russia.

Of course, there is a bit of irony hidden in Europe’s newfound resolve in no small part thanks to traitor trump. While Biden has masterfully cooperated with and led the collision of European countries, NATO must be coming to the stark realization that Putin is more aggressive than they anticipated. Moreover, there is no guarantee the U.S. will be a NATO member after 2024. In short, traitor trump has forced Europe to take matters into their own hands, which may be unintentionally good, but the true strength of Europe is one allied with the U.S. and nothing less.

According to USA Today, “Russian forces have grown increasingly frustrated by Ukrainian resistance, particularly near the capital of Kyiv, and the Russian advance remains about 18 miles from the city, a senior Defense Department official said Saturday. Russia has, however, sent reconnaissance forces into Kyiv, the official said, declining to say how many of those troops have penetrated the city. About 50% of Russia’s combat troops have entered Ukraine up from 30% on Friday, the official said, characterizing the number in the tens of thousands of combat and logistics troops. Russian troops are advancing along three major routes into Ukraine.”

Of course, I am pleased — and not surprised — but I am also cautious not to get too sanguine. Ukraine is holding its own on many fronts, particularly preventing Russia from taking the capital, for now. But please, please understand that what Russia has unleashed so far is barely the tip of the spear. It is only day three. I find it hard to believe Russia thought they could waltz into Kyiv in three days or less. Yes, Ukrainian forces are outnumbered, but they are not inept! And it is certainly great news that Ukrainia’s air force has not ceded total air superiority to the Russian invaders, but there are only so many soldiers and pieces of matériel Russia can rush into a country in 72 hours.

One may speculate all these Russian advances so far as probing (or softening) moves to get a feel for Ukraine’s resolve and how they (military, government, and citizenry) react. Remember, all the analysis we are hearing is from the West, so while all the military brass I hear on the MSM keeps expecting a “shock and awe” strategy, there is no evidence that was ever Russia’s plan. To assume Russian generals would think and act like Americans with “shock and awe” or Nazis with Blitzgreig is foolish. Perhaps Russian generals are thinking more like Grant during the Civil War — I know, yet another “foolish” American comparison — whereby all Grant cared about was killing more Confederate soldiers than Union soldiers because he knew the North had more men than the South. So, tactics and strategies were geared toward killing the most Rebels. I’d say this blunt force “strategy” fits quite well with Putin’s mentality! I fear, however, Putin is about to double down by going full Hitler ala Warsaw, in which case all hell is about to break loose. I think Putin was willing to see if the nation might fall like a house of cards. Now, convinced otherwise, he’ll be looking to break the back of Ukraine. He’s committed to this path, for better and likely for worse!

And a final word about Volodymyr Zelenskyy. No doubt he is a very brave man who has risen to the moment, unlike that see you next Tuesday writer, Olga Rudenko, who penned an essay for The New York Times titled, “The Comedian-Turned-President Is Seriously in Over His Head.” Yeah, she can go suck on the end of a Luger; she seems like the type who would have one handed down from her parentage. Yet, for all of his bravery and commitment to be an example to his countrymen, I hope when the time comes he will evacuate the government from Ukraine. It is absolutely critical that if — dare I say when — Ukraine falls the legitimately elected government must remain intact and coordinate the resistance from exile. At some point, the citizens left behind have to feel that whatever illegitimate government Putin installs is weakened by the true government acting in safety. If Zelenskyy and the government are eliminated then there would be no one and nothing about which to rally. Martyrs have little power compared to living symbols. Think of DeGaulle heading up the resistance in exile in London as a counterweight to the Vichy government in France during WW II. “For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”

From the Atlantic Council, “Vladimir Putin surprised no one today when he recognized the ‘independence’ of the Donetsk and Luhansk peoples republics, the areas of Ukraine’s Donbas where Moscow engineered a ‘revolt’ against Ukraine’s central authorities. His statement also made clear that he has designs on other independent states that emerged when the Soviet Union collapsed. And as we saw in the draft treaties that Russia sent to the United States and NATO, his designs also touch on states of the Warsaw Pact. This is confirmation that accommodating Moscow in Ukraine will not satiate Putin’s appetite for territory and provocation. What the United States, NATO, and the European Union do next is extremely important. Putin has committed a substantial provocation. If the West’s response is simply rhetorical, Putin will smell weakness and escalation is likely. The West must respond now. That means impose (sic) some sanctions immediately—strong sanctions. It appears that the Biden administration will sanction economic activity in the areas Putin just recognized as independent. If that is the extent of the response, the United States will be inviting Moscow’s further escalation. The administration is now saying that there will be additional sanctions for this latest provocation after consultations with allies and partners.”

Absolutely, yes! I have already said that I do not think sanctions will work; however, at this point, it is more important that NATO show resolve and cohesion by bringing the hammer down on Russia. But this is precisely the paralysis I fear may happen. Anything less than the full force of NATO action will only show just how (predictably) weak the alliance is. And to all those f***tard diplomats who are reluctant to press Putin for fear of making things worse, I say this: It’s already f***ing worse. Do not fall for this “peacekeepers” notion. And do not fall for the line that Putin is only “re-invading” disputed territory. There is no such thing as “disputed territory.” All these parts in the Donbas are sovereign Ukrainian land. THIS IS THE INVASION WE’VE BEEN EXPECTING!

Putin is not going to change course, morons. What part of this entire months-long crisis has not indicated otherwise? Nothing! Look, morons! This is precisely Putin’s playbook — incrementally pushing the envelope expecting the international community to stand by wringing their hands hoping Putin doesn’t do more, pretty please. Everyone already knows this, yet with every Putin move, it’s as if no one saw it coming and then Allies are stunted into inaction or timidity. This is what I fear because Putin has been getting away with running over the West for decades — pick any invasion, any poisoning of Russian citizens in Western countries, any human rights violation. You name it! NATO and America, in particular, need to drop all the pretenses. Diplomacy is done! War has begun!

I don’t have facts to back this up, but here it is in local time: 23 February 2022 at 0430 Hour. This is just my D-day, H-hour WAG for the beginning of the Russian invasion into Ukraine. And Putin is going full scorched-earth by the way! Even as I write this it seems my WAG underestimated Putin’s promptness.