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Recession, “Maybe”?

According to J.P. Morgan, “In light of heightened trade policy uncertainty, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a global recession to 40%. Both business sentiment and consumer confidence have slumped in the U.S., and a slowdown here could weigh on global growth. Against this rapidly evolving economic backdrop, J.P. Morgan Research still expects to see two more rate cuts this year.”

Once again, the “smart” money is completely missing the point and refuses to state the obvious. J.P. Morgan, one of the largest banks in the world, can’t bring themselves to declare the obvious: We’ll be in a recession immediately! Obviously, we won’t know officially until the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee declares one after two quarters of contracting economic growth. Maybe they’ll declare one earlier if the crash is significant enough. Oh, wait. Who am I kidding? I forget who controls the NBER. It’s the executive branch, i.e., The Don! Thus, expect them never to declare a recession — ever. No matter how bad things get, they will never officially declare a recession. Mark my words! Other non-government institutions may unofficially “declare” a recession, but do not expect the government to tell citizens the truth. The truth will be dead in rough times!

Nonetheless, for the “braintrust” at J.P. Morgan to still forecast a less than 50/50 — at the time of this writing that is — chance of a recession is somewhat incomprehensible. As Reuters reported about Fitch Ratings, “The U.S. tariff rate on all imports has rocketed to 22% from just 2.5% in 2024 under the new global levies imposed by President Donald Trump, Fitch Ratings’ U.S. economic research chief said on Wednesday. ‘That rate was last seen around 1910,’ Olu Sonola, Fitch’s head of U.S. economic research, said in a statement after Trump’s announcement for a global baseline import tax of 10%, but much higher rates for many trading partners.” While many analysts will have many opinions and predictions, I think the warning from Fitch about returning to a time early in the last century should be a wake-up call for the markets and businesses. J.P. Morgan’s rather optimistic forecast really does speak to the fact that the big banks don’t want to poke the bear — Dictator Don. They still hold out hope that these tariffs will be less catastrophic than is apparent to everyone else. Whatever! After 10 years of the Dictator Don reality show, people are still — still to this very day — shell-shocked by everything he says and does to the point that they can’t think straight. Welcome to stupid America! Proving dumber one day at a time.

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Believe Me Now?

For all those f***tard “experts” out there who kept trying to convince Americans and themselves that Dictator Don is merely bluffing on tariffs, that this is just the start of negotiations, that tariffs are just a tactic, do you believe reality now? Or are you still delusional? I especially love how the “wisdom” of the markets could not be bothered to read the writing on the wall until it reached out and slapped them on the face. I’ve been trying to warn all you morons that The Don! means business when it comes to tariffs. (I will only concede that these tariffs are worse than I expected. So much so that I may have to reconsider my midterm election predictions.) Unlike just about every other aspect of his economic and political ethos, he actually believes in the “virtues” of tariffs. It is probably the one true conviction he has other than believing that the 2020 election was stolen from him. But whatever. This is precisely what Americans voted for. Oh well, f***tards. You deserve this!

Oh, oh. Before I forget, I finally heard it. Finally, finally, finally! I finally heard a MSM economist state the obvious — yet inexplicably never stated — consequence of tariffs on the price of domestic goods. Steve Rattner, Morning Joe‘s resident economist (yes, yes, I’ve returned to watch Morning Joe just this week), actually stated out loud that domestic prices would also increase because of these tariffs, as he said, “Why wouldn’t they?” Indeed! As I had just written in an earlier post, Tariffs for Dummies, I argued that there is no reason why domestic producers would not increase their prices to a level similar to the cost of like, tariffed goods. Duh! Finally, one other person gets it. Not sure why everyone else keeps missing this point.

And if I have to hear one more CNN segment talk about car prices, then I’m going to lose my ever-loving f***ing mind. While reporting on car prices is “sexy,” it is far from representative of the larger looming tariff crisis, which is essentially a 10 percent tax on everything — everything (see paragraph immediately above). People can put off buying a car or spread out the increased cost by extending loan terms, which now you can expect to see 10-year car loans. Mark my words, morons! (When I bought my car a couple of years ago, they offered a 7-year loan term, which astonished me. I had never seen that before. I remember when 6-year loans were considered a sign of lacking creditworthiness. But I digress.) Nonetheless, other discretionary expenses and certainly non-discretionary items like groceries and medication will hit hard and immediately. Again, whatever. People voted for this. This sh*t-for-brains country wanted a president to “shake things up” and destroy the economy, and now they’re getting it. Morons get the government they deserve and desire. Welcome to stupid America!

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EU Fecklessness

From Politico, “It’s one thing to hit Harley-Davidson motorbikes and bourbon whiskey. It’s another to go after Silicon Valley or Wall Street. The European Union is considering opening up a new battlefront as President Donald Trump prepares to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs on all of America’s trading partners on Wednesday. Brussels has so far played by the traditional trade-war rulebook, matching Trump’s broader tariffs on the industrial metals with equivalent levies on iconic American brands like Harley-Davidson. The tit-for-tat response is intended to match, or ‘mirror,’ the administration’s moves — but not to escalate. … As a last resort the EU can deploy its trade ‘bazooka’ — the Anti-Coercion Instrument. As the name suggests, it would enable a broad-spectrum response, including targeting services, if Brussels concludes that U.S. actions are excessive. … And even as it signals its willingness to escalate, Brussels also hopes to bring Washington to the negotiating table. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is hoping his U.S. counterparts can settle on a ‘term sheet’ that sets out a framework for talks — when the next round of tariffs takes effect [emphasis added].”

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. What is it with this sh*t-for-brain world? Seriously! When did the world as a whole become so f***ing stupid? I truly want to know at what point the resistance to Dictator Don completely evaporated. At what point will the world start to take The Don! both seriously and literally? After all this time, Europeans are still grappling with how to respond. Dictator Don has been telegraphing his intentions for months, and the E.U. is still weighing its tariff response. They should have their counter tariffs ready to go and be communicating them just as Dictator Don has. If the U.S. does ABC, then the E.U. will do XYZ — no ifs, ands, or buts. And “hope,” as the article quoted above states, is not a f***ing strategy. If I had a f***ing half cent for every time I heard the resistance to Dictator Don claim they hope he will not do what he says, then I would be richer than Elonna Musk!

This is how The Don! keeps getting away with everything! No one is willing to stand up to him, and he knows it. He knows no individual or country will push back with the political ruthlessness or courage required to blunt his force. Facing no resistance, he keeps pushing harder. Moreover, anti-Trump politicians and world leaders enable his worst impulses because they all unwarrantedly fear him. Now is the time for the E.U. to push back hard and take a page from the Dictator Don playbook: If he hits them, they hit back 10 times harder. Oh, who the f*** am I kidding? The E.U. response will be feckless. I promise you. Mark my words! The Don! will get away with it again, as usual. Welcome to stupid America!

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Another Dem ‘Speech’ — JFC!

According to Newsweek, “Democrat Cory Booker is holding a marathon Senate floor speech, largely criticizing Trump administration policies and spending cuts. The U.S. Senator from New Jersey has held the floor since about 7 a.m. ET on Monday, pausing only to take questions—and a breath—from Democrat allies. … The 55-year-old has vowed to keep going ‘as long as I am physically able.’ … Booker’s speech is not a filibuster because it is not blocking legislation or a nomination.”

Wow! Dumbass Democrats continue to prove their worthlessness and misguided political “acumen.” First of all, I think the Democratic base is f***ing sick and tired of dumbass Democrats’ speeches — less empty talking and more fruitful action is desirable. Endlessly yammering on is not the action for which we’re looking. This is not the type of enthusiasm (or lack thereof) that fires up the base’s passion. How f***ing pathetic! It is more embarrassing than anything else. Second, Booker’s stunt doesn’t even amount to a filibuster, so it is literally a speech of sound and fury, signifying absolutely f***ing nothing. Truly! These Democrats are so f***ing stupid that they can’t even engage in “good trouble” effectively. Why not wait for a piece of legislation to block to make his political point, because as his “protest” stands now, it is utterly meaningless. No one f***ing cares about Democrats’ empty gestures. It is nothing more than Booker talking for hours just to hear himself talk. And what’s worse? Booker’s speech is actually holding up an anticipated bipartisan Senate vote to rebuke Dictator Don’s tariffs on Canada. What a f***ing disaster. I swear to f***ing God, dumbass Democrats have just lost it. Welcome to stupid America. Democrats are leaderless and becoming more irrelevant every hour Booker speaks.

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America Collapsing!

According to NBC News, “Moving at a rapid-fire clip, Donald Trump has been concentrating power in his hands, pushing the bounds of executive authority while effectively muzzling an array of voices that pose threats to his agenda. Trump is using the multiple levers that a president commands both to neuter institutions he has scorned and reward others that align with his worldview. One by one, he is bending ostensibly independent actors under the weight of his power. So far, Trump has targeted the legal community, universities, the arts, career government employees and the press and brought them to heel in some measure, willingly or not. Law firms with even indirect ties to past investigations of Trump now face punitive measures that could put them out of business.”

This article pretty much summed up succinctly the state of affairs in this sh*t-for-brains country. But allow me to read between the lines and tell you about the real consequences of Dictator Don’s actions, which no MSM will dare write. In short, America’s democracy is collapsing right now as we speak, right before our eyes. You are witnessing the end of our 250-year experiment in real time. And guess what? No one f***ing cares. Not a single f***ing American cares. Oh sure, there are a handful of protesters here and there. Indeed, small groups of disgruntled constituents are showing up to town hall meetings. But a general uprising of concerned citizens, by and large, is nowhere to be seen. More people were concerned about the Muslim ban during Dictator Don’s first term. How bizarre is that? Eight years ago, there were protests, en masse, against banning Muslims from coming to America. Yet, today, when America’s democracy and rule of law are coming to an end, the public response is complete and utter apathy. Un-f***ing-believable! People, for the most part, remain in their homes, cowering and unwilling to face the facts of America. This is what a dying country looks like. Mark my words, f***tards! Welcome to stupid Ameirca! The end is here as I’ve been warning for years! Oh, well.

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Tariffs for Dummies

I found this comic nailed it perfectly. There is one not-so-subtle aspect of tariffs that I have not heard the MSM address, including so-called “expert” reports and analysts covering the economy and markets. That aspect is this: Tariffs cause all prices on like products and substitutes to increase. I have discussed this before, but it is never fully explained in the MSM. I assume because the average American is too stupid to comprehend the finer facets of tariffs.

You know, this is not a matter of simply avoiding tariffed products by switching to items made in America instead. That’s not how economics works, as the comic above evinces. Of course, a firm would raise its price to just below what a like product would be under tariffs. That’s a no-brainer. If you have to buy a widget, domestic or foreign, and the imported widget price is $15.00, then why won’t a domestic producer charge a price higher than pre-tariff but less than post-tariff? Firms are rent-seekers, and this is risk-free profit in the short term. If American-made firms can get away with raising prices by any amount, knowing that demand for their widget will shift from foreign to domestic producers, then why not? Yes, yes. You may ask what about producers selling less of a product at a higher price, which might induce them to keep prices low. That is a fair point, and that’s where the intricacies of economics become very complicated; indeed, what is the sweet spot between higher profits and production? Bottom line is this: Tariffs equal restricted supply, which leads to higher prices. Nonetheless, Dictator Don thinks all this will lead to deflation (or disinflation), and that’s what idiots of America also seem to believe. That’s why they voted for him — allegedly. If The Don! says it, then it must be true! Welcome to stupid America!

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The Onion

No truer headline has ever been written. At least one “news” source understands dumbass Democrats. Now, if only the Democratic Party would get the hint! Welcome to stupid America! Can’t wait for the next missed opportunity!

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Masked Gestapo

According to WFMZ, “A Turkish national and doctoral student at Tufts University has been detained by U.S. Department of Homeland Security agents without explanation, her lawyer said Wednesday. Rumeysa Ozturk, 30, had just left her home in Somerville on Tuesday night when she was stopped, lawyer Mahsa Khanbabai said in a petition filed in Boston federal court. Video obtained by The Associated Press appears to show six people, their faces covered, taking away Ozturk’s phone as she yells and is handcuffed.”

The whys and wherefores aside, the concern here should be the tactics involved, which are nothing short of Gestapo-styled disappearing a person of “other” origins. Except I would say what these Americans did to Ozturk was worse than the Gestapo. At least members of the Nazi secret police had enough chutzpah to show their faces. But whatever! No one f***ing cares that the “others” are literally being swept off the streets and removed from their home state against judicial orders. No one cares when everyone should care, for this is just the beginning you f***ing morons. You should care greatly because don’t think for a second that you will be immune from being disappeared. It’s only a matter of time before Dictator Don comes for your group. That’s the thing with autocracies; they all eventually run out of minority groups to harass and imprison. At some point, they will turn on their own for not being loyal enough or whatnot. Mark my words. Mark them well. And for those who may truly be in the rarified protected class (i.e., straight WASP men), do you really trust that the Dictator Don administration won’t make a mistake? They err daily. God forbid a WASP has a suspicious tattoo. As a natural-born American citizen, you might find yourself (or a loved one) extradited to a foreign country without due process. Oh, well.

The last point I want to make about this particular incident, again ignoring whys and wherefores, is the fact that government agents are willing to grab people off the streets in such a nefarious, anonymous manner, as if to be ashamed for their involvement yet moving with alacrity. If you ever wanted to know how the Nazis could reasonably and intellectually claim they were just following orders as they engaged in genocide, then just look to this situation in your own backyard — America. This is how it all starts, f***tards. And, again, no one f***ing cares because where are the marches? Where are the mass protests in the streets? The citizenry has already been completely subdued. It took The Don! two months to cow the opposition, if ever there was any. Deep down, despite what the polls say, I think most Americans are just fine with Dictator Don’s moves; it’s the only explanation for him being more popular in his second term than his first. The more vile of a character he shows himself to be, the more people love him. Oh, well. You’ve been warned — repeatedly! But no one is listening. People get the government they deserve and desire. Welcome to stupid, stupid America. “First they came for the Communists….” ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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136 Years!

According to CNN, “Democrat James Andrew Malone narrowly won a special election for a Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a stretch of Republican-leaning suburbs and farming communities, scoring an upset in a territory that a Democrat hasn’t represented in the chamber for 136 years. Malone’s victory over Republican Josh Parsons in Tuesday night’s special election might provide a light in the darkness for Democrats struggling to unify around a strategy to counter President Donald Trump and at each others’ throats publicly.”

While this win proves that Democrats can win in tough districts under Dictator Don’s second term, I remain skeptical that this trend will hold in the midterms. I’ve already declared a couple of weeks ago that I do not think dumbass Democrats will take back the House come 2026. I understand that I’m cutting against conventional wisdom, but I am the consummate contrarian and pessimist, especially when expecting dumbass Democrats to fight with the political ruthlessness required in today’s pugilistic climate. If I have to pick between the two parties, then I typically default to the party that can play down-and-dirty (i.e., RepubliKKKlans) over high-minded and righteousness (i.e., dumbass Democrats). It’s sad but true. Sure, Democrats may be learning to play the game differently and better, but they are a long way off from honing their talent to take back control of the federal branches of government — all of them, from the White House to Congress to SCOTUS. All these branches will need to be recaptured to right the sinking ship that is The United States of America; anything less than just using a bucket to bail out the water rushing through a Titanic-sized gash in the hull. If I’m wrong about the Democrats being unable to retake the House next year, then I will be more than happy to admit I was wrong, as is my custom.

So, yeah. I am by no means sanguine about the recent run of Democratic wins in these special elections. And to think that dumbass Democrats have a chance in the Florida special elections is comical. Once again, we have dumbass Democrats convincing themselves that coming in last by less is somehow a win. That’s what I’m hearing. The fact, for example, that Randy Fine, a RepubliKKKlan, is being massively out-raised by Democratic candidate Josh Weil should not be construed as a potential “near win,” as most dumbass Democratic and MSM pundits are already claiming. And if I have to hear one more idiot Democratic politico claim that coming in a close second in a Dictator Don +30 district is a win, then I’m going to lose my ever-loving f***ing mind! Only dumbass Democratics think a near loss is a win. Only f***ing Democrats to this. It’s ridiculous and only evinces that their political acumen is still sorely misguided. A loss is a loss is a loss. There is no “close” in politics, especially in highly gerrymandered districts. This is the same party that promises, in every election cycle, Texas will turn blue. Un-f***ing-believable! Only in this sh*t-for-brains country. Dumbass Democrats simply are not there yet, and I’m not sure they’ll ever get there with this iteration of the party. Welcome to stupid America.

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Elected Incompotence!

According to CNN, “US officials reacted with shock— and in many cases, horror — to revelations in The Atlantic that top members of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet sent detailed operational plans and other likely highly classified information about US military strikes on Yemen to a group thread on a messaging app to which a reporter had accidentally been added. The Trump administration acknowledged the messages, sent over the nongovernment encrypted chat app Signal, seem to be authentic without offering any explanation for why senior officials were discussing national defense information outside of approved classified government systems. Almost immediately, senior officials scrambled behind the scenes to review the use of Signal amid concerns that Trump administration officials are relying too heavily on it to conduct sensitive government work – posing a potentially grave risk to US national security, current and former officials said.” And then from The Hill, “‘I couldn’t imagine anybody would use Signal,’ Bolton told CNN’s Kasie Hunt on ‘The Arena.’ ‘You know, some of the guests have commented that Signal’s highly encrypted. I’ll just say this, if you think Signal is equivalent to U.S. government secure telecommunications, think again.’” But her emails! KMN!

So! Are you happy, f***tards? Are you proud of this incompetence? Is this what you MAGA morons voted for? As I have said countless times, this sh*t-for-brains country is simply too f***ing G.D. stupid to endure. America can no longer survive with this level of citizen stupidity, who elect the most incompetent people in the country to lead the government and ensure national security. Seriously! At this point, every person who voted for Dictator Don at any point over the last 10 years should immediately kill themselves for being so G.D. f***ing stupid! I don’t care if you realized that you “made a mistake” in 2016 when you voted for The Don! the one and only time, for that one time, has led us directly to this current moment in history. As for those who voted for him in 2020 or 2024, there is no hope for you — kill yourself now, please! You are too dumb to be worthy of life. But whatever. This is what we get when the dumbest people on the planet (i.e., the American voter) elect other idiots to run the government.

And no one will be held accountable; I promise you — Not! A! Single! Person! No one will be fired or disciplined for leaking national security information. Not in this Dictator Don sh*t show. It’s business as usual for these stooges. And, of course, no one cares, least of all the public. I promise that this latest demonstration of an incompetent administration will wash over voters’ heads as usual, unconcerned by this episode and unable to apprehend the severity of this breach of national security. The abject level of public apathy is so strong and so rooted in our psyche (read: mental handicap) that nothing will penetrate their concern. We are sleepwalking into doom because I live in stupid f***ing hell. Oh, well!

Let me end by commenting on Waltz’s emoji response above. It’s bad enough that all this information was being publicly disclosed over an unsecured, commercially available chat app, but to have a senior member of the collection of administration dunces use emojis to prove his jejune maturity is beyond infuriating. What the actual f***?!?! Is this grown man actually a child? Is this how he thinks? In cartoon exclamations similar to the Boom! Pow! Bam! of DC comic books? Jesus-f***ing-Christ! I can’t deal with this level of stupidity in America anymore. Forget Dictator Don’s policies. While they are bad enough and will only get worse, what is more insufferable is the unmitigated level of stupidity I am inexorably subjected to daily. Welcome to stupid America. If the incompetence doesn’t kill us, then the idiocracy surely will! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯