So! I’m pissed at myself because I failed to memorialize my prediction of this alleged Russin coup attempt in enough time to say I told you so. My gut feeling about the Yevgeny Prigozhin “uprising” on Friday night was this: Much ado about nothing. I hesitated to comment. So, shame on me. It should have been pretty clear from the start that Prigozhin has always been a whiney baby attention whore who invariably seems to be the most disgruntled lieutenant within the Putin oligarchical cliche. He’s the Fredo of The Godfather, constantly seeking approval from the boss and others while throwing tantrums on social media that amount to “I’m smart.” How many times did the former hot dog stand entrepreneur complain about being mistreated, ignored, or disrespected? How many times did he threaten to take his marbles (the Wagner mercenaries) and go home? That he was done with the war and the Russian generals’ mismanagement (but never Putin himself) of it. That he wasn’t getting enough support or ammunition. Yet, for all his empty threats and b*tching, he stayed and continued fighting: All talk and no action. But there was some action on Russia’s behalf. As Politico reported, “Fighters of the Wagner paramilitary group will not sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said, countering an effort by the ministry in Moscow to integrate the mercenaries in the ordinary army. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Saturday ordered all ‘volunteer detachments’ at the front in the Ukraine war to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1, in order to increase the effectiveness of the army.” There has been a longstanding rift between Prigozhin and Shoigu, and now Shoigu has effectively subsumed the Wagner Group under Russia’s military — and Putin seems to be copacetic with it, leaving Prigozhin hanging in the wind. And that is what set Prigozhin off, not some alleged attack on his soldiers that killed “thousands,” whereby he was going to seek revenge for their deaths. This was more exaggeration from the baby-b*tch, who clearly does not care who lives or dies.
Thus, he claimed he was moving on Moscow with his forces in “protest.” Riiiight! This was just another temper tantrum but with a bit more gusto and accompanied by a meth-fueled notion of grandeur. Prigozhin has had enough, and now he will stomp his way to Daddy Putin to prove it! Did the minor league warlord really think he was going to be successful? I have no doubt he felt that he may have had some support within Putin’s inner circle at some point or, more broadly, in the country, but as with all bombastic, arrogant f***tards, he misread the room, thinking himself to be more popular and influential than he actually was. He realized relatively quickly in his “protest march” to Moscow — about have way there, to be precise — that his anticipated support was not materializing. It is one thing for citizens to join the parade with you, and it is quite another for the people to merely move aside as you march through the country. He probably fashioned himself as Napoleon, who escaped Elba and gathered support from the countryside as he marched to Paris to oust Louis XVIII. Napoleon’s return to power lasted all of a hundred days, leading to his final defeat at Waterloo. I guess Prigozhin forget to read the whole story, and he is no Napoleon. But as a man who thought himself a great military general from the humble beginnings of a hot dog salesman and restauranteur, I suppose the sky is the limit for Prigozhin. To be sure, he is a dead man walking. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. He knows it, and so does everyone else. Whatever this deal with Lukashenko, it will not protect him from Putin’s comeuppance. I can only say that Prigozhin should avoid tall buildings with windows and hire a food taster.
I may have missed the opportunity to predict the failed coup outcome earlier, but I am in time to make one prediction that cuts against the general consensus of pundits about the impact on Putin. Quite simply, it is this: Nothing! Not one G.D. thing! If I have to hear one more overly optimistic political pundit or “expert” on this matter claim that this Prigozhin gambit somehow weakens Putin, then I am going to lose my f***ing G.D. mind. This “coup” attempt was so ephemeral and feckless that it will be a footnote in the history books so inconsequential as not to be worthy of its own paragraph. It is exceedingly ridiculous to paint Putin as having been weakened when the “thing” that everyone claimed to be never actually materialized. To be clear, I am in no way supporting Putin, but it really stirs my ire when people entirely misinterpret the situation and its consequences in the hopes of willing some not-going-to-happen outcome. This is how people underestimate threats. If anything, this is a prime opportunity for Putin to purge people he dislikes or distrusts and further consolidate power. Putin is the type never to waste a disaster becoming a good opportunity. If one needs a recent example, then think of the failed coup attempt in Turkey against Erdoğan. How did that turn out? He further cracked down on dissenters and just got re-elected. Why? Because people love their distractors. How many f***ing times must I say it, f***tards? Putin is no exception. Russians love him, even if they don’t; they love him enough to be cowed by him and his regime into complacency. So nothing is going to come of this Prigozhin fiasco. And for the love of f***ing God, this will not impact the illegal war on Ukraine. Stop thinking it will. There will be no impact on Russians’ morale or perception of the war. It will be business as usual, which is generally the Russians not winning. And as for the Wagner Group, it is effectively defunct; the Duma is already working on legislation. Does anyone really think Prigozhin is going to remotely lead his army from exile (for however long that last)? Either those fighters will be absorbed into Russia’s military, or they’ll be on their way to other adventures if Putin doesn’t eliminate them first. Wagner is no more in any case. This was Prigozhin’s final hurrah. The meth high wore off, and he lost his nerve — and his army and soon to be his life. Oh, well! Could not have happened to a nicer guy!