After today’s arguments before SCOTUS on the matter of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, there will be many prognosticators trying to divine the meaning of the give-and-take among justices during questioning. To all that, I say rubbish; one need only count heads and look to the Texas abortion law. Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch are votes locked in to overturn Roe, without question. In fact, I have no doubt they already drafted their opinions before today’s oral arguments, for they have long since justified their reasoning years ago. And do not be fooled by Kavanaugh and Barret! They now have the power to kill Roe, and they will do so after some superficial “wrangling” with their conscience over the law and stare decisis. So, that creates the requisite five-member majority. Roberts will go no further than upholding the Mississippi law. He’s more of a kill Roe by a thousand cuts (or opinions) type of guy. And I don’t care what pundits are saying about how they think the Court will try to thread the needle; that is to say, keep Roe but weaken it. Those people are morons and have not been paying attention to this entire decades-long saga, not just today’s oral arguments. To be sure, today was catastrophic for women’s rights.
The real question, however, is why would the justices wait to overturn Roe, given a chance before them right now? Indeed, they have no need to wait. Let’s game this out for a second. If there is any aspect of Roe or Casey, more specifically, that may save abortion rights in the current SCOTUS term, it is the notion of fetal viability, which is currently around 24 weeks. Let us say Roberts is angling votes to arrive at a majority that upholds the Mississippi law — abortion ban after 15 weeks — while keeping Roe technically intact. Immediately, the viability standard, which has been the law of the land for 30 years, goes right out the window in favor of some arbitrary standard (i.e., 15 weeks). What then prevents another state from passing another arbitrary standard of 12 weeks or six weeks? Oh, wait. Isn’t there already a state that bans abortions after six weeks? Which one could that be? Texas, perhaps?
And that brings me to my earlier point: No need to divine what the justices might do; merely look to what they have already done! They allowed the Texas law, with a 6-week ban, to go and remain in effect for months while working through their state of flummox by a law anointing citizen-vigilante litigators. Their actions — or lack thereof — are more telling than their interrogatories during oral arguments. This is a classic case of believing what they do, not what they say. For instance, with the Texas lawsuit, SCOTUS would typically hold the status quo while allowing such a novel legal case to work its way through the lower courts, but they did not do that. No! Instead, they effectively allowed a total ban on abortions in Texas to become law. At the same time, they ponder “interesting legal questions” such as having the Texas legislature rely upon citizens to enforce a law that abridges a person’s constitutional rights. Indeed, “how interesting” and convenient! Oh, no. Let’s not protect a person’s constitutional rights first and foremost while we think; we’ll just kill your rights in the meantime and then let you know later if you get those rights back. Apparently, the 6-week standard is really the newly accepted threshold.
Given that most women don’t even know they are pregnant until week four or later if they have irregular menstruation cycles, the 6-week ban is effectively a full-on ban. In which case, why stop there? Why not take the short leap of making an abortion ban in effect be an abortion ban in law? I’m not going to split hairs by predicting a ruling where they gut Roe but keep it in name only. I say they will completely overturn Roe, arguing that it was a case wrongly decided 50 years ago. I think they’re already there! Now, they just need to type it up, format it, and hit print. Oh, well. Elections have consequences, and dumbass Democrats are the last ones to understand that. The countdown begins! Mark my words, morons! Nothing matters anymore. Your rights will be next, so be careful what you wish for and what rights you cherish. America is literally going backward with our rights. And welcome to stupid f***ing America!