Tag: Posted

From the Atlantic Council, “Vladimir Putin surprised no one today when he recognized the ‘independence’ of the Donetsk and Luhansk peoples republics, the areas of Ukraine’s Donbas where Moscow engineered a ‘revolt’ against Ukraine’s central authorities. His statement also made clear that he has designs on other independent states that emerged when the Soviet Union collapsed. And as we saw in the draft treaties that Russia sent to the United States and NATO, his designs also touch on states of the Warsaw Pact. This is confirmation that accommodating Moscow in Ukraine will not satiate Putin’s appetite for territory and provocation. What the United States, NATO, and the European Union do next is extremely important. Putin has committed a substantial provocation. If the West’s response is simply rhetorical, Putin will smell weakness and escalation is likely. The West must respond now. That means impose (sic) some sanctions immediately—strong sanctions. It appears that the Biden administration will sanction economic activity in the areas Putin just recognized as independent. If that is the extent of the response, the United States will be inviting Moscow’s further escalation. The administration is now saying that there will be additional sanctions for this latest provocation after consultations with allies and partners.”

Absolutely, yes! I have already said that I do not think sanctions will work; however, at this point, it is more important that NATO show resolve and cohesion by bringing the hammer down on Russia. But this is precisely the paralysis I fear may happen. Anything less than the full force of NATO action will only show just how (predictably) weak the alliance is. And to all those f***tard diplomats who are reluctant to press Putin for fear of making things worse, I say this: It’s already f***ing worse. Do not fall for this “peacekeepers” notion. And do not fall for the line that Putin is only “re-invading” disputed territory. There is no such thing as “disputed territory.” All these parts in the Donbas are sovereign Ukrainian land. THIS IS THE INVASION WE’VE BEEN EXPECTING!

Putin is not going to change course, morons. What part of this entire months-long crisis has not indicated otherwise? Nothing! Look, morons! This is precisely Putin’s playbook — incrementally pushing the envelope expecting the international community to stand by wringing their hands hoping Putin doesn’t do more, pretty please. Everyone already knows this, yet with every Putin move, it’s as if no one saw it coming and then Allies are stunted into inaction or timidity. This is what I fear because Putin has been getting away with running over the West for decades — pick any invasion, any poisoning of Russian citizens in Western countries, any human rights violation. You name it! NATO and America, in particular, need to drop all the pretenses. Diplomacy is done! War has begun!

I don’t have facts to back this up, but here it is in local time: 23 February 2022 at 0430 Hour. This is just my D-day, H-hour WAG for the beginning of the Russian invasion into Ukraine. And Putin is going full scorched-earth by the way! Even as I write this it seems my WAG underestimated Putin’s promptness.

According to The New York Times, “President Vladimir V. Putin said he would recognize the independence of two Russian-backed territories in eastern Ukraine and warned the government of Ukraine that further bloodshed ‘will be fully and wholly’ on its conscience, delivering an emotional and aggrieved address that set the stage for the possibility of Russian military action against Ukraine. The White House responded by saying that President Biden will begin imposing limited economic sanctions on the two separatist regions, stopping short of imposing any penalties directly on Russia for now but vowing that more would come. Leaders of the European Union also condemned Putin’s move and said they will impose sanctions on those involved.”

First, you should be absolutely clear about what Putin has done. He has essentially signed articles of war. He should have just declared war out loud. This is the mother of all pre-texts to justify an invasion. He literally just created the circumstances for Anschluss or whatever the Russian term is for the same. In short, Putin created a “legal” — only insofar as Russian jurisprudence extends — rationale for defending these new Russia-allied “states” from Ukraine “aggression.” So, what does that mean for Ukrainians who are not Russian-backed separatists living in those provinces? They are now about to be under the direct influence (read: control) of Russia. Ukrainians one minute, Russians the next. And that is how wars are started. The dye has been cast. Again, I say the war actually started a few days ago, but if people want a more formal indication, then I say bombs will fly and tanks will roll within hours from now. Caesar crossed the Rubicon today.

Second, I am pleasantly surprised Biden has already said he will impose sanctions for this most recent Putin action. It was swift and direct. Good start, but not enough! War is here, folks!

According to Axios, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a searing criticism of Western inaction against Russian aggression on Saturday, arguing that Ukraine has acted as a ‘shield’ for the past eight years and that Europe’s security architecture has utterly failed. … Zelensky began his speech by recalling Putin’s address to the Munich Security Conference in 2007, in which the Russian president attacked the U.S.-led global order and eastward expansion of NATO as ‘extremely dangerous.’ … ‘15 years ago, it was the Russian Federation that made a statement here challenging the global security order. How did the world respond? Appeasement.’ … Zelensky also criticized the West for claiming that Putin has made the decision to invade, but not imposing sanctions until the attack has begun: ‘What are you waiting for? We don’t need sanctions after bombardment happens, after we have no borders, no economy. Why would we need those sanctions then?’”

I have no idea where Zelensky is wrong! As I said in a previous post, we have Bush II and Obama to thank, in part, for this appeasement policy. And traitor trump did not engage in appeasement. Oh, no! He’s done more than appeasement! Rather, he’s the out-right f***ing leader of the American Fifth Column, which is alive and well in the U.S.A., thanks to Faux News and Tucker “Bow Tie Bimbo” Carlson stoking pro-Russian sentiment in America. Needless to say, every president — except Biden at the moment — has allowed Putin to walk all over neighboring countries, Western Allies, and America. Putin has been threatening democracies for — well — forever as democracies simply stand by and watch. And that is exactly what’s going to doom the Ukraine crisis. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: America and NATO are going to sacrifice Ukraine. Once the economic pressures of war hit home, then the alliance with falter. Mark my words!

What do you think is actually going to happen once Russia starts bombing and rolling over Ukraine in full force? How long do you think the country will hold out? A month? Six weeks? God bless Ukraine’s fighting forces and God bless the people’s will to resist Russia, but let’s be honest — and no one has openly admitted this in the public forum (MSM) that I;’ve read or seen — but Ukraine has no chance of prevailing. Sure, sure, Putin can find himself in a protracted guerilla war. But all he needs to do is overthrow Ukraine’s government; he doesn’t need to occupy every city and every block. Once his cronies are in their political places and the puppet government takeover is complete, then the war will be won and he’ll claim “peace” and victory. The aim is to control Ukraine’s government, not win the hearts and minds of the citizens. He’ll win their obedience in the end. What will Allies be doing all the while? Sanctions! Those things against which Russia has already been steeling itself. Unless there is a catastrophic screw-up whereby Russian forces find themselves having wandered into NATO territory or attacking NATO forces, then the Allies will just sit on the sidelines wringing their hands hoping for a quick end to war and accepting whatever occupation ensues. This is going to be Anschluss all over again.

One already gets a sense that America and NATO are weak-kneed. Zelensky makes a great point: If Biden thinks that Putin has decided to attack — and really I think the war started a few days ago — then why are the Allies still waiting to levy sanctions? I mean at the very least if they expect sanctions to be a deterrent, then shouldn’t the Allies show a bit of their hand by now when we are on the cusp of this war getting out of control? At this point, the “deterrent” of sanctions is merely empty words, as if the Allies have yet to agree on what sanctions would entail. Even Congress could not agree on a sanctions bill. From The New York Times, “For weeks, as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia signaled he was moving closer to invading Ukraine, members of Congress in both political parties vowed that the Senate would pass a ‘mother of all sanctions’ bill targeting Moscow that would prove the overwhelming, bipartisan American resolve to stand with Kyiv against Russian aggression. But on Thursday evening, with the threat of invasion looming ever more acutely, senators could muster only the legislative equivalent of a strongly worded letter scolding Mr. Putin for a ‘provocative and reckless’ military buildup on Ukraine’s border, passing a nonbinding resolution quickly and without debate before leaving Washington for a weeklong break.” Jesus-f***ing-Christ-on-the-m*****f***ing-Cross! Welcome to stupid America!

Although, I should say without reservation that sanctions are not going to work; Putin’s Russia has been living under and coping with some sort of sanctions regime since they first occupied Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine; thus, either the West failed to impose meaningful penalties for Russia’s bad behavior going back years or the West never intended the sanctions to hurt that much in the first place because — you know — Russia exports a lot of energy resources and they are usually rewarded for it — Nord Stream I and Nord Stream II. So, you see that Russia’s occupation of a sovereign country engenders more business from the West! In either case, it appears the Allies and Congress are failing to get their act together beyond token strong words and warnings. I’m not sure why this juncture would be any different.

Wow! If I were Putin looking at the coordination and determination of the West to deter me, then I would be laughing. To be sure, NATO appears more unified than ever, but that unification is only in messaging and words. What happens when the rubber meets the road is a whole other situation. Not sure why democracies are always so pitiful at defending democracy. They have a habit of putting off the hard decisions until it’s too late, and it is too late for Ukraine.