According to USA Today, “Russian forces have grown increasingly frustrated by Ukrainian resistance, particularly near the capital of Kyiv, and the Russian advance remains about 18 miles from the city, a senior Defense Department official said Saturday. Russia has, however, sent reconnaissance forces into Kyiv, the official said, declining to say how many of those troops have penetrated the city. About 50% of Russia’s combat troops have entered Ukraine up from 30% on Friday, the official said, characterizing the number in the tens of thousands of combat and logistics troops. Russian troops are advancing along three major routes into Ukraine.”
Of course, I am pleased — and not surprised — but I am also cautious not to get too sanguine. Ukraine is holding its own on many fronts, particularly preventing Russia from taking the capital, for now. But please, please understand that what Russia has unleashed so far is barely the tip of the spear. It is only day three. I find it hard to believe Russia thought they could waltz into Kyiv in three days or less. Yes, Ukrainian forces are outnumbered, but they are not inept! And it is certainly great news that Ukrainia’s air force has not ceded total air superiority to the Russian invaders, but there are only so many soldiers and pieces of matériel Russia can rush into a country in 72 hours.
One may speculate all these Russian advances so far as probing (or softening) moves to get a feel for Ukraine’s resolve and how they (military, government, and citizenry) react. Remember, all the analysis we are hearing is from the West, so while all the military brass I hear on the MSM keeps expecting a “shock and awe” strategy, there is no evidence that was ever Russia’s plan. To assume Russian generals would think and act like Americans with “shock and awe” or Nazis with Blitzgreig is foolish. Perhaps Russian generals are thinking more like Grant during the Civil War — I know, yet another “foolish” American comparison — whereby all Grant cared about was killing more Confederate soldiers than Union soldiers because he knew the North had more men than the South. So, tactics and strategies were geared toward killing the most Rebels. I’d say this blunt force “strategy” fits quite well with Putin’s mentality! I fear, however, Putin is about to double down by going full Hitler ala Warsaw, in which case all hell is about to break loose. I think Putin was willing to see if the nation might fall like a house of cards. Now, convinced otherwise, he’ll be looking to break the back of Ukraine. He’s committed to this path, for better and likely for worse!
And a final word about Volodymyr Zelenskyy. No doubt he is a very brave man who has risen to the moment, unlike that see you next Tuesday writer, Olga Rudenko, who penned an essay for The New York Times titled, “The Comedian-Turned-President Is Seriously in Over His Head.” Yeah, she can go suck on the end of a Luger; she seems like the type who would have one handed down from her parentage. Yet, for all of his bravery and commitment to be an example to his countrymen, I hope when the time comes he will evacuate the government from Ukraine. It is absolutely critical that if — dare I say when — Ukraine falls the legitimately elected government must remain intact and coordinate the resistance from exile. At some point, the citizens left behind have to feel that whatever illegitimate government Putin installs is weakened by the true government acting in safety. If Zelenskyy and the government are eliminated then there would be no one and nothing about which to rally. Martyrs have little power compared to living symbols. Think of DeGaulle heading up the resistance in exile in London as a counterweight to the Vichy government in France during WW II. “For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”