This Is the Spear Tip and the Spear

From Haaretz, “A 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and other vehicles threatened Ukraine’s capital Tuesday as an intense shelling attack targeted the country’s second-largest city, and both sides looked to resume talks in the coming days aimed at stopping the fighting. … The developments came as Russia finds itself increasingly isolated as a result of international condemnation and potentially backbreaking economic sanctions. Five days into the invasion, the Russian military’s movements have been stalled by fierce resistance on the ground and a surprising inability to dominate the airspace.” My first reaction is, why doesn’t Ukraine do something about it! But then I quickly understand that they can’t, unfortunately. To be sure, the Russian convey is a bunch of sitting ducks, but Ukraine does not have the military numbers to engage far beyond the capital center.

Many pundits and commentators have been analyzing Russia’s failures in these initial days of the war and the stiffer than expected resistance from Ukraine, which no doubt is true. We’re only on day six of this conflict, people. I fear Russia’s failures are less unintentional, in part, because Putin is engaging a rope-a-dop strategy. I think — and I’ve said this before — he wanted to see if Ukraine folded like a house of cards. That, of course, would have been the most preferred outcome — for Putin! — with little fighting, death, and destruction. No doubt that was extraordinarily unrealistic and likely reinforces the perspective that Putin is suffering from delusions of grandeur — aka dictator syndrome. The kid gloves are about to come off.

Putin has a long history of destroying cities and countries without regard to life and property, but let’s be clear about something. Putin wants to absorb Ukraine into his empire intact, not as a nation of rubble. The next phase of the war is to terrorize the population into submission if that can be done. I don’t think the plan was ever to “shock and awe” Ukraine; it has always been to wear the people (and the West) down with a vice grip. This will be the real test for NATO, EU, America, et al.: Can we maintain our resolve.