Directly from the Atlantic Council, “For weeks, the eyes of the world have been on a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine, as Western officials struggle to decipher Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intent: beef up his attack on Ukrainian sovereignty, or bluff his way to key concessions? Amid a flurry of diplomatic talks, fiery rhetoric, and movements of heavy materiel, we wanted to separate the signal from the noise. So we reached out to our military fellows at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, who are active-duty officers with the US Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, for a sense of what they’re tracking most closely—and what indicators we should all be monitoring to divine Putin’s intentions.” Four things to watch: (1) Pay attention to cyberattacks, military exercises, and evacuations of non-combatants; (2) Keep your eyes on Russia’s reserves; (3) Look out for sub-zero temperatures and medical prep; (4) Watch the waters around Odesa. Read the details at the link above.
We’re Going to War!
According to CNN, “Planned Russian naval exercises within Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) are ‘not welcome’ or ‘wanted right now,’ Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister has said, as tensions between Russia and the West continue to simmer over fears that Moscow is planning an invasion of Ukraine. Russian naval exercises are due to take place in early February, approximately 240 kilometers (149 miles) off Ireland’s southwest coast, Simon Coveney said in a statement late Sunday. The area is in Ireland’s EEZ but not its territorial waters.” That’s odd. But why off the coast of Ireland of all places?
Rewind a couple of years. From The Irish Post, “Russian agents have been sent to Ireland to inspect undersea cables which connect the United States to Europe. … The cables in question are underwater fiber-optic cables which carry internet signals from North America to Ireland, the UK and mainland Europe. … Ireland acts as a landing point for thirteen of these cables, and the Times are reporting that agents from the GRU – Russia’s military intelligence agency – have been sent to Ireland to map their locations. … There are fears that Russian agents are monitoring the cables so that they can be tapped, altered and even cut in times of conflict. … It’s estimated that around 97% of all intercontinental data is transferred through these cables [emphasis added].”
Add to this all of Russia’s cyberattacks on the U.S. and European countries. None of this is coincidental. In isolation, all these “micro” incidents spread out over years and across the globe may seem unrelated and trivial, but I think it is part of a grander Putin plan. I think Russia has been preparing for years, which means any invasion into Ukraine is just the beginning of something larger. Do not underestimate the seriousness of Russia’s moves. The time is right. The world is distracted with COVID and America is particularly distracted with figuring out if we want to keep our democracy or not. Putin’s fifth column is already hard at work in America; it’s called the RepubliKKKlan Party and Faux News. I fear there is far more going on here. We are headed for some disastrous encounters, which could easily spiral out of control. It’s just a gut feeling; I’ve been known to be wrong on occasion. But I have a very bad feeling about this! I also had a bad feeling about COVID in January 2020 before all hell broke loose, though back then my bad feeling wasn’t bad enough. Yikes!
Boris in Boiling Water?
Yeah, but probably not roiling enough to matter. Look, morons. All these conservative politicians are the same no matter the country. For some unknown reason to humanity, they all seem to have nine lives. In fact, the impact of these “partygate” revelations has less to do with breaking COVID protocol than it does with Brexit. As The Conversation so pithily puts it, “Yet, for all the public anger about Johnson’s lack of leadership during the pandemic and inability to grasp the need for full contrition about ‘Partygate’, his weakened position actually has a lot more to do with the aftershocks of Brexit … Johnson’s downfall would be a case of the revolution eating itself. The irony is the man who promised to get Brexit done, may well get done in by Brexit.” And as the poll above evinces, people have buyers’ remorse and Boris is the face of Brexit. In fact, people have almost universally never wanted to leave the EU, but as with everything in conservative politics across all countries, the minority rules over the majority and the majority lets them. So, “partygate” is likely just a proxy for Brexit frustration. But fear not! Although I have no special insight into British politics, I’m probably safe in saying Boris will survive. No matter the country, conservative politicians persist while liberals play stunned onlookers. Oh, well. We shall see.
Russia v. Ukraine: World War III or Regional Conflict?
First, I have to say that the MSM changed its tune rather quickly on this topic. Just a few days ago I was aggravated by their relentless downplaying of the rising tensions; it was only last week they had experts who kept trying to convince the audience that diplomacy would win the day and that somehow all of Putin’s moves were elaborate and drawn out negotiating tactics. Fast forward seven days, and basically, everyone is now seeing the inevitable, logical conclusion: War is coming. Christ! I’ve been warning an invasion is “imminent” — in the weakest sense of the word — since the beginning of December. In fact, I wrote a post called The Fall of Ukraine long before these “experts” on military and international affairs jumped on board the Captain Obvious bandwagon. Ugh. Whatever!
And now with the recent revelation from the U.K. intelligence that Putin intends to install a puppet government in Ukraine, we begin to see the larger picture, which, of course, is not at all surprising. Christ-all-f***ing-mighty! Putin tried and succeeded in infiltrating the U.S. government at the highest level. Everyone knows traitor trump was Putin’s puppet. Thankfully, the orange fat man is trump stupid; even Putin was disappointed in the end. Nonetheless, Putin was able to establish long-lasting disruption within the soul of America. I think it is fair to say, the current state of America’s dysfunction allowed Putin to create the Ukraine crisis. Now’s his chance to recapture history; I’ve said from the start that Putin sees Ukraine as being part of Mother Russia. Furthermore, he wants to reassemble the U.S.S.R. It doesn’t take an Einstein to surmise as much. Seriously. You just need to know a little bit of not-so-distant history.
Yet, the real question is how catastrophic will the Russian invasion be? Forecasting the imminency of conflict is rather easy based on informed reasoning that elucidates daily, but understanding how it develops after the first interactions is just guesswork. Does Russia drag us into World War III or does the fall of Ukraine remain a localized tragedy? Normally, being the contrarian means I can easily argue the World War III, worst-case-scenario perspective rather readily, but in this case, I have no clear insight. I do know Biden is weak, which is helping precipitate this entire mess. I am not blaming Biden, but the Democratic Party and his idealism have not done him any favors with his approval at home. As I said, Putin sees America divided, and I promise you, Putin has more support among RepubliKKKlans and MAGA morons than Biden does. A divided nation is not going to war, lest it tears itself apart (cf. Vietnam War), which would also be a win for Putin. Seriously! There is little downside for Putin to invade. When Biden misspoke during his press conference about a “minor incursion” and suggested divisions within NATO, they were not a poor choice of words; it was a Freudian slip. I don’t care how much clean-up on aisle 5 the State Department had to do to clarify what Biden really meant. What came out of Biden’s stream of consciousness mouth was a clear signal to Putin that the President of the United States is already gauging the least costly response to a Russian move. What Biden should be doing is to drop everything to prepare Americans for this impending conflict. Because as it stands now when war does break out Americans are going to be completely blindsided. The average American idiot can’t even find Ukraine or Russia (and in many cases the U.S.) on a f***ing map, let alone care about the consequences of an international conflict that will serve as a proxy for the struggle between democracy and autocracy. Unless Biden starts preparing Americans by explaining the significance of this moment in history, then morons of America will blame him for allowing war to interfere with their Facebook and Twitter time. He needs to prepare Americans for what military conflict with a former superpower is going to look and feel like. Even if the fighting is localized, the ramifications will be globalized.
Then there is Europe. They have little appetite for a protracted and expansive conflict. The sooner they can sacrifice Ukraine then the better for them. After all, what’s one country that falls under the authoritarian rule of Russia? Of course, it’s this short-sighted thinking, employed time after time and situation after situation, that’s emboldened Putin in the first place. We can thank Bush II and Obama for that. We should have slapped down Putin years ago, but we failed to do so. Now we have a braver, bolder, and stronger dictator that knows democracy is dying around the world. How will democracies of the world react? Dare I answer that? I think I already know the answer, and I fear much more is going to be lost than just the sovereignty of Ukraine. To be sure, the U.S. and NATO are starting to send military hardware and other support. And I do find it rich that the former Soviet satellite states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania appear to be the NATO nations most eager and willing to provide Ukraine with military aid. But in all honesty, it is too little too late and truly evinces that the Allies are once again behind the eight ball and have sorely underestimated Putin’s resolve — another thing he’s already anticipated.
Biden has often said the world is struggling between democracy and authoritarianism. Ukraine will be a test of his sincerity and conviction in that belief. This conflict will be a monumental trail for the world. If the democracies of the world react to Russia in the same way nations of the world have addressed climate change, then we have nothing to worry about. 😐
Russian Invasion Is Imminent
From The New York Tims, “On Jan. 5, 18 people — mostly the children and wives of Russian diplomats — boarded buses and embarked on a 15-hour drive home to Moscow, according to a senior Ukrainian security official. About 30 more followed in the next few days, from Kyiv and a consulate in Lviv, in western Ukraine. Diplomats at two other Russian consulates have been told to prepare to leave Ukraine, the security official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters. How to interpret the evacuation has become part of the mystery of divining the next play by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Thinning out the Russian Embassy may be part propaganda, part preparation for a looming conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.” The stupid hurts and the MSM is making it worse. I am getting rather sick of news anchors, commentators, pundits, and “experts” “all-sides-ing” blatant evidence that Russia is preparing — has been for months now — to invade Ukraine, yet everyone seems to be providing alternate — any number of other conceivable — explanations as to why Putin may not be preparing to invade. (Except Lt. Colonel Vindman. He’s been very clear-eyed with his analysis about what’s sure to happen.) I don’t know what the f*** it is with Americans that love to be willfully ignorant, complacent, and stupid. Perhaps the MSM doesn’t want to be alarmist. Well, maybe they should be. Maybe they need to wake America the f*** up! Christ, Biden gets it! He basically just said Russia is going to invade. He did not mince words, unlike every other pundit and “expert” on the subject matter who keeps thinking there is some negotiated off-ramp waiting to happen. Look, Putin has already decided to invade; we’re just waiting for him to pull the trigger.
Look here, f***tards! I will repeat myself — again! If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s a f***ing G.D. duck, morons. Yet, I keep hearing these international and Russian “experts” on MSM providing justifications as to why what everyone is seeing could just be one large, prolonged feint (psych!) or a negotiating tactic, although negotiations have essentially stalled. These people are in wishful thinking mode. Fan-f***ing-tastic. International political analysis based on hope. He’s going to invade, morons! Putin has been adding more troops to surrounding Ukraine borders. He’s invaded Ukraine twice before — and he’s still there. He knows Biden is weak and America is divided. Putin also knows 40 percent of Americans love Russia more than America; those people are the traitor MAGA morons, RepubliKKKlans, and the Russian-lover traitor himself trump. Putin knows NATO and the EU are unwilling to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty in order to protect their own economic (energy) interests by extension. Not to mention the entire world has been weakened by COVID. This is Putin’s chance! It’s just so f***ing obvious, yet the world seems pretty intent on looking the other way. But, don’t worry, people. When it does happen then the Allies will wring their hands a bit and slap on more feckless sanctions. And then shrug their shoulders. After that, Ukraine will be on its own to resist becoming a satellite state of Russia, or should I say the U.S.S.R., which is Putin’s grander dream. Not to mention Putin literally believes Ukraine is still a part of Mother Russia that’s gone rogue. Mark my words, morons. It’s as plain as the nose on your face! We’re just going to let this happen when we should be bombing Putin and Russia into the stone age. I’ve had enough of Putin walking all over us!
Time to Smack Down Russia
According to CNN, “President Joe Biden urged his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Thursday to take steps to ease an unremitting crisis on Russia’s border with Ukraine, warning again of dire economic consequences should Putin proceed with an invasion.” It’s time, folks! Seriously! It is time for the U.S. and NATO to smack down Russia. It’s long overdue, and Biden needs to do it before he loses the next election. Putin has been walking all over the U.S. and NATO for well over a decade, and we’ve been letting him. Now he’s grown in power and strength to a point where a country like Germany has energy resource entanglements with Russia and would rather not make any hard decisions that jeopardizes their energy security arrangement. Once traitor trump gets in office, he will pull out of NATO and then Russia will recapture all the former Eastern Soviet Bloc countries, and no one will do anything about it. Mark my words on that!
Holy-F***ing-Sh*t! Traitor [T]rump Got Something Right!
From The Hill, “Former President Trump said in an interview published on Monday that he believes former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu never had any desire to establish peace with the Palestinians during his 12-year term in power.” Of course, this says more about Israelis than it does traitor trump. Not sure how or why it took Israeli voters 12 years to realize this before voting him out of office. Netanyahu has never wanted peace, but world leaders (including Obama) all played along anyway, pretending a two-state solution was ever going to be possible while Netanyahu was in power. At least traitor trump had the courage to say it out loud! Oh, and what’s going on with Netanyahu’s indictments? He’ll be yet another world leader wherein nothing happens to him for his criminal behavior. Another consequence-free moment for a crooked politician. It never fails!
The Fall of Ukraine
One word: Anschluss! (For the morons out there: Read Me!) In short, Ukraine is f***ed with much thanks to a weakened America. Look, f***tards! Recall that Putin annexed Crimea and invaded Eastern Ukraine in 2014, and there were no consequences because that’s what democracies do best: Appease dictators ala Hitler in 1936 (the Rhineland) and 1938 (Anschluss and the Sudetenland) and 1939 (the rest of Czechoslovakia). Putin invaded and continues to occupy parts of Eastern Ukraine because it was once part of Mother Russia. Oh sure, there were some stupid sanctions against Russia, but they seemed to be just enough of a deterrent seven years later for Putin to build up an army poised to invade the rest of Ukraine. Putin would love nothing more than to make the rest of Ukraine part of his Russian Empire. This is history duplicating itself. America and other European democracies may be wringing their hands as they announce “stern” warnings about “severe consequences,” which Putin will ignore because he knows they are empty threats. Of course, MSM analysts provide worthless insight. I heard one “expert” claim the military buildup was just Putin seeking attention from the other major world players. OMG! Seriously?!?! Putin is amassing the largest escalation of military forces gathered on Ukraine’s borders because he feels like the overlooked, under-appreciated pretty girl that no one wants to dance with at Homecoming? Are you f***ing kidding me!?!? Can we just interpret the situation with the forthrightness it deserves? Invasion is imminent. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best one. Putin is willing to risk invasion because he knows the consequences — there won’t be any. America nor NATO will come to the defense of Ukraine because they fear war, so the bully will keep on bullying. What former Eastern Bloc country will Putin invade next? This is his chance. America has never been so divided since the Civil War, so naturally, half of Americans will support Putin because Biden opposes him. What better gift can Putin wish for? A country at war with itself that has no time nor interest in “another European conflict.” The once hawkish RepubliKKKlan Party has turned isolationist under traitor trump’s influence and dumbass Democrats — well, enough said about that! So, America is MIA when it comes to defending democracy around the world (e.g., Hong Kong, Afghanistan) because we can’t even protect our own republic from ourselves. This is what happens with a diminishing superpower because it has become increasingly super-stupid — other countries take advantage. Fan-f***ing-tastic. Welcome to stupid America!
What the F*** Is Wrong with Biden?
Now I’m just pissed because I see Biden continuing to pave the way for traitor trump’s return to the White House. I speak of the submarine deal with Australia, which I suppose also doubles as a metaphor for what Biden is doing to his presidency, the Democratic Party, and America’s democracy. The resulting fallout with France is just one more example — on the heals of the Afghanistan disaster — of the Biden administration’s foreign affairs incompetence. Jesus-f***ing-Christ. I thought I voted for the component guy. I thought I voted for the guy who would not sh*t on our allies. I thought I voted for the guy who would contemplate consequences first and then act accordingly.
Instead, I keep getting a president who leads an administration that can’t seem to recognize obvious outcomes one day into the future. What a f***ing joke. Let’s not sugarcoat the obvious here: Biden stabbed France — our longest ally — in the back by negotiating a submarine deal with Australia to France’s detriment (and embarrassment). And now he’s playing catch-up and make-up. Unbelievable. I understand Biden’s motive to strengthen our relationship with Australia via this deal as a means to counter China’s growing military strength in the hemisphere. Still, the way his administration did it was a disaster. We treated France poorly by it. And people wonder why his job approval rating keeps sinking. Get ready for traitor trump’s return at this rate. I just don’t see things turning around. And I won’t even get into Biden’s legislative disasters — for a seasoned Senator who was supposed to know how to bring two sides together and get stuff done. I’ll save that train wreck for another post. Welcome to stupid America! We get the government we deserve, and we like it!
No Saigon Moment Here, People — Move Along, Nothing to See, Move Along
What another f***ing G.D. embarrassment for America. America loses another war, and there is no other way to understand this historical moment. I have spent the weekend witnessing the events and listening to administration officials and news pundits commenting on the Afghanistan collapse and the relevant history that led to this moment, and there is no way this was the least disastrous alternative. Biden made a bad decision. Pure and simple. We’ll see if Americans care enough to punish Biden, but one thing is for sure: RepubliKKKlans will. Weak. So f***ing weak! I’m getting really, really tired of it.