Reporting from The Washington Post, “Two months into the invasion of Ukraine, a Russian military commander suggested Friday that Moscow aims to establish a corridor through southern Ukraine to Transnistria, a breakaway republic in eastern Moldova. ‘Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population,’ said Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. … Nonetheless, it sparked global conversation about the separatist enclave and represents the most direct challenge to Moldova to date. Moldova summoned Russia’s ambassador later Friday to express ‘deep concern’ over Minnekaev’s comments.”
So! Putin’s territorial ambitions are coming into sharper focus. What is astonishing is how much Putin is playing the Hitler playbook. Like Hitler, Putin uses the Russian diaspora as an excuse to claim land from sovereign countries in Europe. He’s used the same rationale for invading and occupying parts of Georgia, Crimea, and the Donbas. And, of course, it is a primary excuse for his invasion of Ukraine — a nation in his mind that should not exist in the first place. It should not surprise anyone that he would naturally extend (push through) to Moldova.
Of course, the obvious question is, How could Putin set his sights on Moldova when his military is struggling in Ukraine? I’ll tell you how. Because Putin, so far, is winning! Perhaps I should state my argument a bit more precisely: He is not losing. Yes, yes. This may seem to contradict other postings where I highlight Russia’s military incompetence. All of that is still true. Russia’s military is incompetent, but as I have also said, that does not mean they are any less deadly or effective. They’re just not very efficient. Russian incompetence simply means it takes them twice as many soldiers twice as long to accomplish what America’s military — by our standards, of course — could have done in half the time with half the force.
And there is another side to Russia “not losing” its war on Ukraine: The West’s response. I don’t care what you say or what you think, but the response from NATO et al., the EU, and the U.S., while forceful, has not been enough. To be sure, it is more than Putin expected, but it seems the worst of the West’s sanctions have been established. I think China and India — you know, about half the world’s population — will step in to fill the void of any economic shortcomings.1 And it appears military assistance to Ukraine may be peaking. I sense — already — that the West’s commitment to helping defend Ukraine is starting to plateau. The West appears content to help Ukraine just enough to hold back Russia but not defeat it. That is the critical miscalculation of the West, naturally. Ugh! It is this weakness — this stopping short always — that Putin expected from the Allies, and he will exploit it.
Granted, Putin appears to be on plan D or E at this point. The fall of Ukraine did not happen in a few days, and the Russian military has been pushed back in the north. If anything is for certain, he has switched from the short game to the long game. I bet he is counting on the Allied alliance to weaken as prolonged fighting continues. Truly all he needs is for France or the U.S. to elect a Russia-loving president (LePen and traitor trump), and then he’s all set. This is the new strategy. He could spend years grinding the Ukrainian military down, waiting for alliances to fray, and finding ways to circumvent sanctions. This strategy, to be sure, is one the West cannot endure. How does the saying go? “You [the West] have watches. We [Russia] have the time.”
1 Allow me to digress at length while I’m thinking about oil as a void to be filled. Much has been made about Europe’s reliance on Russian energy sources, particularly in Germany, which is the continent’s largest economy. According to The New York Times, “Last year, Russia supplied more than half of the natural gas and about a third of all the oil that Germany burned to heat homes, power factories and fuel cars, buses and trucks. Roughly half of Germany’s coal imports, which are essential to its steel manufacturing, came from Russia. Russian gas, oil and coal are embedded in the German economy and way of life. The roots run deep.” Of course, Putin’s intention for decades has been to create a super reliance on Russian energy, which makes it difficult for NATO partners to sever economic ties despite Russia’s aggression. In short, Putin has guaranteed that no matter the circumstances, Europe needs Russia’s energy. The irony is, of course, NATO countries end up helping to fund Russia’s war against Ukraine through such energy entanglements. Although, Germany has signaled that they intend to eliminate Russian energy imports by the end of the year. Fine. But the move, however necessary, is for optics and perhaps more for moral relief. Unfortunately, oil consumption and production — assuming no appreciable increase in the worldwide output — is simply a reshuffling of pie pieces. When Germany shifts its oil imports from Russia to, let’s say, the U.S. or OPEC proper, then that oil becomes less available to other countries, ceteris paribus. Which nations may be impacted by this new competition for oil allocations? Mmmm. How about India and China? Remember, Russian energy itself has not been sanctioned, so India and China, which borders Russia, can quickly fill the oil void. Oil consumption and imports are just a reordering of the deck chairs, so to speak. So, unless and until the world avoids Russian energy — or worse still, switches to renewable energy sources — nothing will change their ability to fund military adventurism. Again, this is why I say NATO et al., the EU, and the U.S. are not doing enough to cripple Russia — now! We need to be kicking Russia while it’s down.
